Every call it’s made, scored.
The Alpha Engine is one use case riding Digital Twin Earth. Every prediction it makes is written down the moment it is made, with the entry, the targets and the stop, before the outcome exists. Then it is scored against real price data and published here. Wins and losses. Read the block below before the numbers: it says what they measure and what they do not, including that this ledger stopped taking new calls when the analyzer was withdrawn.
- Expectancy / call
- +3.4%
- profitable per call
- Best hour
- 68.2%
- 01:00 UTC · 44 calls
- Win rate, all hours
- 46.8%
- the honest average
- Calls resolved
- 2,381
- Average win
- +59.84%
- Average loss
- 46.11%
What these numbers measure, and what they do not
- The thresholds are constants, not a risk model. The +5%, +15%, +30% and -10% levels are fixed numbers written into the code with no source and no calibration. They are not a risk model.
- The goalposts came from the model, not the market. The per-call targets come from our own model's output, not from the market. So this measures how often the model reached the target it set for itself, not how often it beat an independent benchmark.
- A win can be a 1% move or a 5% move. A conservative target below 1% is silently raised to exactly 1%. A recorded win can therefore be a 1% move or a 5% move, and nothing in these figures separates them.
- This is a snapshot, not a running record. No new call has been recorded since the Solana analyzer was withdrawn. These are a snapshot of a closed set, not a running track record. The most recent call was made on 2026-05-16.
How to read this
A WIN means the call reached a profit target the AI committed to before entry, without hitting its stop first. A LOSS means it hit the stop. Anything that resolved without touching either edge is FLAT. Counting those as wins is how a track record gets inflated, so we don’t.
Win rate on its own is a vanity metric. What decides whether a strategy makes money is expectancy: how often you win, weighed against how big the winners are versus the losers. You can win 90% of the time and still bleed. We publish both, because publishing only the flattering one is the thing we are arguing against.
Which model made these calls
Gemini x SVCM Framework (model not recorded per-call before 2026-07-13)
2,367 resolved calls
47%
The Guard Engine only began recording the model on each individual call on 2026-07-13. Calls resolved before that were produced by the same analyzer pipeline (Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite, falling back to Gemini 2.0 Flash Lite and then GPT-4), but we cannot prove which specific model scored any one of them, so we label them unattributed rather than backfilling a guess.
When the edge actually shows up
Win rate by the UTC hour the call was made. An aggregate number hides whether an edge is real or the artefact of a few good hours, so here is the breakdown. Hours with fewer than 20 resolved calls are greyed out and never ranked: a high win rate on a handful of samples is noise, not an edge.
Best hour
01:00 UTC · 68.2%
44 calls
Worst hour
17:00 UTC · 39.1%
128 calls
Most recent 50 calls
Pull the raw JSON yourselfSwipe the table sideways to see the entry, the target and the outcome.
| Token / called at | Entry | Target | Stop | Peak | Final | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BABYWOJAK 2026-05-16 10:06 | $0.00019680 | $0.00021650 | $0.00013780 | 0.0% | -25.4% | FLAT |
ECASH 2026-05-11 14:34 | $0.00025170 | $0.00026429 | $0.00022653 | +1.7% | -1.4% | FLAT |
RAGE 2026-05-11 13:42 | $0.00135500 | $0.00147500 | $0.00115000 | +25.2% | +25.2% | WIN |
RAGE 2026-05-11 10:01 | $0.00133600 | $0.00142000 | $0.00108000 | +8.3% | +8.3% | WIN |
GAYTES 2026-05-10 10:01 | $0.00023400 | $0.00025700 | $0.00018700 | +12.5% | +12.5% | WIN |
DCB 2026-05-09 22:50 | $0.00278500 | $0.00292425 | $0.00250650 | +27.7% | +27.7% | WIN |
ELIEN 2026-05-09 13:07 | $0.00052800 | $0.00055440 | $0.00047520 | +9.5% | +9.5% | WIN |
mama 2026-05-08 23:24 | $0.00008626 | $0.00009057 | $0.00007763 | +11.7% | +11.7% | WIN |
AMERICA 2026-05-08 15:33 | $0.00144800 | $0.00152040 | $0.00130320 | +27.5% | +27.5% | WIN |
AMERICA 2026-05-08 00:09 | $0.00078370 | $0.00082000 | $0.00055000 | +31.4% | +31.4% | WIN |
ROAF 2026-05-07 16:29 | $0.00010660 | $0.00011193 | $0.00009594 | +24.9% | +24.9% | WIN |
DUMBMONEY 2026-05-07 12:23 | $0.00025920 | $0.00027216 | $0.00023328 | +0.5% | -3.7% | FLAT |
dollo 2026-05-07 12:21 | $0.00020850 | $0.00021892 | $0.00018765 | +0.9% | -5.9% | FLAT |
bulldog 2026-05-07 12:20 | $0.00009666 | $0.00010149 | $0.00008699 | +24.1% | +24.1% | WIN |
YEP 2026-05-07 12:17 | $0.00065920 | $0.00069216 | $0.00059328 | +24.6% | +24.6% | WIN |
bulldog 2026-05-07 12:09 | $0.00071200 | $0.00074760 | $0.00064080 | +15.4% | +15.4% | WIN |
YEP 2026-05-07 12:14 | $0.00073270 | $0.00076934 | $0.00065943 | 0.0% | -8.8% | FLAT |
GREMLIN 2026-05-07 05:48 | $0.00021410 | $0.00023550 | $0.00017130 | +47.3% | +47.3% | WIN |
WCOR 2026-05-06 22:21 | $0.00007206 | $0.00007566 | $0.00006485 | 0.0% | -3.4% | FLAT |
LOL 2026-05-06 16:02 | $0.00254600 | $0.00275000 | $0.00229200 | +2.4% | -5.2% | FLAT |
ELMO 2026-05-06 15:49 | $0.00013540 | $0.00014890 | $0.00010830 | +5.0% | -10.2% | FLAT |
Alzheimers 2026-05-06 11:43 | $0.00013900 | $0.00014595 | $0.00012510 | +7.8% | +7.8% | WIN |
GME 2026-05-06 11:43 | $0.00118600 | $0.00124530 | $0.00106740 | +11.6% | +11.6% | WIN |
GUIN 2026-05-05 22:10 | $0.00044110 | $0.00046316 | $0.00039699 | +1.2% | -4.0% | FLAT |
熊猫 2026-05-05 20:03 | $0.00003099 | $0.00003254 | $0.00002789 | +17.5% | +17.5% | WIN |
DJT 2026-05-05 16:19 | $0.00006465 | $0.00006788 | $0.00005818 | 0.0% | -0.1% | FLAT |
TRUNC 2026-05-05 11:27 | $0.00008293 | $0.00008708 | $0.00007464 | +6.7% | +6.7% | WIN |
TRUNC 2026-05-05 11:27 | $0.00008396 | $0.00008816 | $0.00007556 | +5.4% | +5.4% | WIN |
TRUNC 2026-05-05 11:30 | $0.00008678 | $0.00009112 | $0.00007810 | +1.9% | -8.5% | FLAT |
IMOUT 2026-05-05 04:47 | $0.00104200 | $0.00109410 | $0.00093780 | +2.4% | +1.2% | FLAT |
Wish 2026-05-05 00:23 | $0.00038100 | $0.00040005 | $0.00034290 | +5.3% | +5.3% | WIN |
TROLOL 2026-05-04 22:01 | $0.00016680 | $0.00047220 | $0.00015012 | +7.1% | -8.3% | FLAT |
SPIRIT2.0 2026-05-04 19:06 | $0.00008697 | $0.00009467 | $0.00007392 | +24.2% | +24.2% | WIN |
TROLLA 2026-05-04 19:11 | $0.00008492 | $0.00008917 | $0.00002681 | 0.0% | -58.8% | FLAT |
IMOUT 2026-05-04 17:34 | $0.00141400 | $0.00155600 | $0.00127300 | 0.0% | -3.0% | FLAT |
IMOUT 2026-05-04 17:01 | $0.00151600 | $0.00159180 | $0.00136440 | +0.2% | -8.4% | FLAT |
TRUMP 2026-05-04 16:55 | $0.00000220 | $0.00000231 | $0.00000198 | 0.0% | -0.8% | FLAT |
TRUMP 2026-05-04 16:53 | $0.00000220 | $0.00000231 | $0.00000198 | 0.0% | -0.8% | FLAT |
Trollpface 2026-05-04 07:36 | $0.00031430 | $0.00033002 | $0.00028287 | 0.0% | -4.8% | FLAT |
BULL 2026-05-03 22:26 | $0.00398000 | $0.00418000 | $0.00358200 | +0.3% | -5.2% | FLAT |
TROLL 2026-05-03 22:07 | $0.0461 | $0.0466 | $0.0350 | +2.1% | +2.1% | WIN |
Wish 2026-05-03 17:18 | $0.00056400 | $0.00059220 | $0.00050760 | +3.5% | -8.3% | FLAT |
AALIEN 2026-05-02 21:58 | $0.00038770 | $0.00040709 | $0.00034893 | +3.2% | -3.5% | FLAT |
GME 2026-05-02 20:47 | $0.00099150 | $0.00104108 | $0.00089235 | +0.8% | -4.3% | FLAT |
CCP 2026-05-02 18:31 | $0.00001612 | $0.00001693 | $0.00001451 | 0.0% | -0.9% | FLAT |
IMOUT 2026-05-02 18:03 | $0.00048110 | $0.00052100 | $0.00042900 | +0.6% | +0.6% | FLAT |
CHONKERS 2026-05-02 18:30 | $0.00057230 | $0.00060092 | $0.00051507 | +25.5% | +25.5% | WIN |
LC 2026-05-02 15:28 | $0.00215000 | $0.00225750 | $0.00193500 | +0.3% | -0.3% | FLAT |
BELKA 2026-05-01 18:19 | $0.00044360 | $0.00046578 | $0.00039924 | +10.1% | +10.1% | WIN |
UNITED 2026-05-01 18:46 | $0.00037410 | $0.00039280 | $0.00033669 | +3.0% | -8.8% | FLAT |